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Let’s get bananas, shall we?
While it’s never easy to predict college football upsets—especially more than five months from kickoff—it’s fun to look into a crystal ball and project what could happen.
The Georgia Bulldogs are the defending national champions, but they have a ton of talent to replace, especially on defense. Yes, reinforcements are already on campus, but an early-season letdown is not out of the question.
My picks for the College Football Playoff national title game are Alabama and Ohio State, so none of their games made this list. But, of course, anything is possible in college football, and the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes weren’t spotless a season ago. They will be susceptible to letdowns, too.
Other teams have a few more holes and will face steep competition, so those upsets seem a little more likely. Let’s take a look at some of the games that could flip the sport on its axis in 2022.
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If Oregon can travel across the country and upset defending national champion Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in what will be essentially a home game for the Bulldogs in Atlanta, it may be the biggest upset of the year.
But it wouldn’t be much different than what the Ducks accomplished a season ago when they went to Columbus early and shocked Ohio State.
A lot has happened in Eugene since then. Mario Cristobal left for home in Coral Gables, Florida, and the Ducks’ coaching search ended in Athens, Georgia, as defensive coordinator Dan Lanning left UGA.
So, there will be a lot of familiarity in this game.
Lanning knows coach Kirby Smart’s tendencies. He knows the defensive scheme, and he also knows the personnel on both sides of the ball. While the Bulldogs are loaded once again, their youth and inexperience, especially on defense, could cause some bumps in the road early.
The Ducks have their own questions, but they have a super-talented defense, led by linebackers Noah Sewell, Justin Flowe and Mase Funa, and one of the game’s exciting young running backs in Byron Cardwell. They will also have a capable quarterback in Auburn transfer Bo Nix or youngster Ty Thompson.
Georgia has more talent, but Lanning’s familiarity may just give Oregon an edge. Expect the Dawgs to rally and win the SEC East, but how about a Week 1 shocker to whet your appetite?
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Get ready for the Cincinnati Bearcats to not receive a ton of positive buzz entering the 2022 football season.
After losing quarterback Desmond Ridder, running back Jerome Ford and defensive backs Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant, coach Luke Fickell’s team has so many holes to fill. But the Bearcats are a Group of Five powerhouse and a College Football Playoff team until they aren’t.
Even so, the crash back to earth seems inevitable this season.
Fickell is recruiting quality players, has a plan that has been proven out during his tenure in the Queen City and will be back in a big way. But the ’22 season is going to have some road bumps; Group of Five programs simply don’t reload like powerhouse programs across the country.
One of those hiccups will come the opening weekend of the season in Razorback Stadium when they head to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas.
If you want an SEC sleeper, look no further than the Hogs who, in year three under coach Sam Pittman, have a load of talent on both sides of the ball, led by KJ Jefferson. The signal-caller could wind up one of the biggest playmakers in college football under coordinator Kendal Briles, and this is going to be a big, national resume game.
Arkansas still may be a rung below Alabama in the SEC West, but the Razorbacks can compete with Texas A&M and Ole Miss for that second spot in the division, and they will outclass Cincinnati talent-wise, setting up what could be a memorable year.
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In what may be one of the longest shots, the BYU Cougars are set to host Baylor on Sept. 10, and they owe coach Dave Aranda’s Bears some payback.
A season ago, the Bears pulled off a big win in Waco, Texas, in a battle of 5-1 teams. They handled Kalani Sitake’s team 38-24 on their way to the Big 12 title and only improved throughout the year.
Baylor will return foundational pieces on both sides of the ball, including both quarterbacks who played significant time in Gerry Bohanon and Blake Shapen. The departures of safety Jalen Pitre, linebacker Terrel Bernard, running back Abram Smith, receiver Tyquan Thornton and cornerback Kalon Barnes will be tough.
BYU’s program is on firm footing, too, and while it won’t be easy to replace running back Tyler Allgeier, the Cougars have Jaren Hall at quarterback and a quality defense and will be playing in Provo, Utah.
BYU has a grueling schedule that also includes games against Oregon, Utah State, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Boise State and Stanford.
According to ESPN.com’s Bill Connelly, the Cougs rank second nationally in returning production, so they are going to be a tough out. A win over the Bears could be just the kick-start they need.
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When it comes to Power 5 doormats, perhaps the only two programs on the same footing as Arizona the past three seasons are Kansas and Vanderbilt.
As a matter of fact, neither of those teams has experienced consistent ineptitude like the Wildcats, who have lost 23 of their past 24 games.
But even during last year’s 1-11 campaign under first-year coach Jedd Fisch, the improvement from the beginning of the season to the end was evident.
Now this offseason, the Wildcats not only compiled the second-best recruiting class in the Pac-12 but also plucked terrific players from the transfer portal like quarterback Jayden de Laura and receiver Jacob Cowing.
Things appear to be turning around in Tucson, and now Fisch needs to prove it in the win column. It’s not going to be an overnight fix, but a glimpse at the schedule shows it’s not necessarily out of the question the Wildcats could flip the script and compete for a bowl game.
Perhaps the biggest catalyst to this effort would be getting an early-season home win against Mississippi State. Arizona’s early schedule is sneaky-tough with San Diego State, the Bulldogs and FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. But the talent upgrade at the program is obvious.
Mike Leach is familiar with the Pac-12 from his days at Washington State, and he has a gunslinger in quarterback Will Rogers at the helm. But the positive energy with the Wildcats is a powder keg awaiting a victory few are expecting. This one would qualify, and Fisch could sell an SEC win as a huge deal and a catalyst.
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Despite an 8-4 season a year ago, Texas A&M is a preseason darling for several publications that have the Aggies firmly in the top five. NCAA.com thinks coach Jimbo Fisher’s program is one of the top teams, and so does ESPN.com.
It’s easy to fall in love with A&M. This is a program that had flashes a season ago, upset Alabama in College Station and has a bunch of talent returning like Devon Achane, Ainias Smith, Jaylon Jones, Antonio Johnson, Demani Richardson and others.
Oh, by the way, they also landed the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class, including a remarkable seven 5-star prospects.
Still, there’s a lot of youth that is going to have to play key roles, and there is a full-fledged quarterback battle rife with uncertainty.
Miami, on the other hand, needs a direction, and coach Mario Cristobal has brought one. He hired two exceptional coordinators in Kevin Steele and Josh Gattis, and he also has returning quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who is one of the best young signal-callers in college football.
After a 7-5 season a year ago wasn’t good enough to keep Manny Diaz around, Hurricanes brass wanted a coach who could get the most out of a roster that has a bunch of talent. Running back and the secondary appear to be particular strengths, and things could come together quickly with Van Dyke calling the shots.
A trip to Kyle Field is going to be one of the biggest tests of the year, and while the Aggies will be favored, Cristobal is going to get a huge early win for the ‘Canes.
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Tennessee won more games than Florida a season ago, as the Gators limped to a losing record, fired coach Dan Mullen and hired Billy Napier.
First-year Volunteers coach Josh Heupel exceeded expectations, even with a defense that struggled to get off the field. Even so, Tennessee lost handily at Florida, 38-14.
Because that’s what Tennessee does.
Every Vols fan will tell you that UT sees those Gators jerseys and tightens up. It’s lost 16 of 17 in the series, so if Tennessee somehow finds a way to win, it certainly will qualify as an upset no matter the point spread.
Heupel’s team is primed to beat its hated rival, though. Not only will Florida travel to Knoxville, but it will also have a revamped scheme under Napier and plenty of inexperienced players on both sides of the ball. Emory Jones entered the transfer portal, so a new quarterback will likely take the reins.
The Volunteers have an explosive offense, led by senior Hendon Hooker and receiver Cedric Tillman. Their up-tempo attack was hard to stop for even the best opponents once Hooker replaced Joe Milton III a season ago, and Tennessee will have a year under its belt in Heupel’s system.
Are there still questions about the defense? Yes, but with Florida’s ups and downs, the Vols should surge past the Gators for a big early-season win.
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North Carolina State is poised for a repeat against Clemson.
Perhaps it will be a catalyst for the type of season that can help Dave Doeren’s team reach the ACC Championship Game.
A season ago, the Wolfpack beat the Tigers 27-21 in double overtime in Raleigh to improve to 3-1 on their way to a 9-3 record. Though they didn’t win the ACC’s Atlantic Division, finishing second to Wake Forest, it was still a resounding victory.
This year, NC State needs to find running backs who can replace the production of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., and that will be a point of emphasis throughout the spring. But it has a wealth of returning talent on both sides of the ball.
Devin Leary was one of college football’s unsung breakout stars, and the quarterback is set to do big things again. But the Wolfpack’s strength is the defense, led by returning linebackers Payton Wilson, Isaiah Moore and Drake Thomas along with safety Tanner Ingle and an experienced secondary.
Scoring on NC State is going to be tough, and while the Clemson offense surely will be much improved, how much do the Tigers need to do to close the gap? Clemson has been a powerhouse for so long that you expect Dabo Swinney and Co. to win these games.
But look for an upset for the second season in a row.
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With Ohio State returning so much offensive talent in 2022, it was too hard to pull the trigger on rival Michigan beating the Buckeyes again or even Mel Tucker’s upstart Spartans catching them off-guard.
It also wouldn’t be an upset for the Spartans to beat the Wolverines, either.
But there definitely will be some head-turners in the Big Ten next year, and one of them that would be a huge turnaround from what happened a year ago would be Iowa upsetting Michigan.
The Wolverines lose a lot of production, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and while they dominated the offense-less Hawkeyes 42-3 a season ago, Iowa was really much better than it played in that game. Surely Kirk Ferentz isn’t going to let his team wallow in three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust again this year, is he?
Nobody is going to be crying for Jim Harbaugh in 2022. He has an elite, young quarterback in J.J. McCarthy (as well as returning starter Cade McNamara), a bunch of talent at running back and some great young defenders.
But replacing both coordinators isn’t going to be easy, and with Michigan traveling to Iowa City, that’s a tough spot to win, and the Hawkeyes are known for uglying up games there and getting wins. They have to find better quarterback play than a season ago, but by October, it should be figured out.
Harbaugh’s team is going to have another good year, but it feels like this is a game where Iowa can pull off a big win that can help lead them to a division title.
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The 2021 season was one of the most forgettable in Texas Longhorns history, and that is saying something considering just how dysfunctional things have been in the past decade.
Steve Sarkisian probably isn’t on the hot seat. But it won’t take him long to get there with another bowl-less season.
Longhorns fans probably aren’t going to have to worry about that.
While there are still plenty of question marks on defense, Texas has reloaded on offense, bringing in transfers such as quarterback Quinn Ewers and receiver Isaiah Neyor to go along with Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington.
And getting Bijan Robinson—who may be college football’s top running back—on the field after last year’s season-ending injury will be massive, too.
On the flip side, Oklahoma will be under new coach Brent Venables. There is sure to be some transition, but don’t expect the Sooners to dip too much.
It isn’t popular to note, but the program steadily declined in Riley’s last three years, so a change at the top may not have been such a bad thing.
The Red River Showdown is routinely wacky, and even though the Sooners have won the past four, three of those were by one possession. The Horns have the offensive firepower to break through, which would constitute a mini-upset. It also could catapult them into the Big 12 title conversation.
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USC landed a program-changer this offseason in coach Lincoln Riley.
Whether he’s ever going to win a national championship is another debate, but Riley was a winner at Oklahoma who kept that proud program on the same level as Bob Stoops had. He’s going to turn things around with the Trojans.
The impact is going to be immediate, too. With all of USC’s transfer portal wins—quarterback Caleb Williams, receiver Mario Williams and running backs Travis Dye and Austin Jones—it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the offense can lead the team to 10 wins.
A shift in the Pac-12’s balance of power could come Oct. 15, when the Trojans travel to Salt Lake City to take on the defending champion Utah Utes. Coach Kyle Whittingham’s team is expected to be the class of the conference again.
But it has been known for hiccups along the way, and while it may be asking too much for the Trojans to be consistent throughout the year, they’re going to nab some big wins. As Dye told 247Sports’ Chris Trevino of Riley’s scheme, “It’s the best offense I’ve ever been a part of.”
Utah defeated USC 42-26 a season ago in Los Angeles, so this is expecting a ridiculously quick turnaround. But that’s what big hires such as Riley can do. The Utes may win the league, but the Trojans are going to win this game.
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The past two seasons of Coastal Carolina football have given us some nice stories.
During the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the Chanticleers came from nowhere to give us the feel-good story of the year and an 11-1 record. Last year, even dealing with injuries to all-world quarterback Grayson McCall, they finished 11-2.
Now, McCall is back for at least one more season in Conway, South Carolina, and you can expect some huge things in 2022. Even after losing a bunch of production on both sides of the ball (15 starters) and having to reload a little this year, McCall’s return is huge.
In three years at the program, he has thrown for 5,386 yards and 54 touchdowns and has won back-to-back Sun Belt Player of the Year honors.
This is a sneaky long-shot upset pick, and it’s really all because of McCall, who can be a great equalizer with his talent.
The Virginia Cavaliers finished 6-6 a year ago, and coach Bronco Mendenhall left coaching, giving way to the Hoos hiring Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott to lead the way. They have a ton of offensive talent that is going to make it tough on Jamey Chadwell’s Chants, and they’ll almost certainly be favored.
But Elliott is going to take some time to implement his system, and by the time these teams play just before Thanksgiving, Chadwell will have found weapons to surround McCall. This could be one of those wacky 54-51 games when it is all said and done, but look for the Group of Five darlings to make a little noise again.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference. Player rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.